Paphos People

..and what it means for Brexit



"Theresa May is both the strongest and weakest prime minister of recent times.

Her strength lies in her current popularity, demonstrated by opinion polls and anecdotally. She is seen, rightly or wrongly, as the steady-as-she goes, sensible leader for the chaos of negotiating Brexit.

That strength extends to the attitude of the media. It was striking on the trip to the G20 in China with her and 20 or so UK journalists that the press is giving her the benefit of the doubt, in a way that it has not done since the early days of Blair.

Hacks' normal pursuit of snubs to a PM and gaffes by him or her seems to have been suspended.

For example, when Theresa May at various official functions was seated or positioned a long way from the Xis, Obamas and other great panjandrums, May was given the benefit of the doubt - seen as finding her feet, not deliberately marginalised as representing a country that has turned its back on maximising its international influence through membership of the EU, or as being punished by her Chinese hosts for questioning whether China's companies would be proper owners of British nuclear power.

So much for her strength - best seen as an extended honeymoon with the British people and the organs of the media.

Her weakness, however, is just as extreme - and also has two sources.

The Tory majority in parliament is wafer thin. And, lest we forget, her party is bitterly divided, still, over the EU - though now its split is about the structure of our future relationship with the EU, rather than whether we should be in the EU at all.

For Tories, the toxic question is what kind of trade off there should be between access to the single market for UK goods and services on the one hand and - on the other - the right or ability of eu citizens to continue to come here to live and work.

Oh, and there is also the electrifying issue of whether we should continue to pay anything to Brussels.

Against that backdrop, Mrs May's language on what Brexit means in a positive sense was conspicuously ambiguous.

For the avoidance of doubt, she has not formally ruled out either some kind of "voluntary" payments into the EU budget or preferential rights for EU citizens to live and work here - although she is under enormous pressure from the ultra sceptics in her party to do both.

So when it comes to formulating what Brexit actually means she is caught in the painful vice of what she and her advisers may see as necessary compromise on immigration and money for Brussels - that will deliver adequate access to the single market - versus what her MPs and members of her cabinet will actually tolerate.

It makes formulating a coherent plan for EU exit well nigh impossible.

And if she had any illusion that she has much time to pull off that impossible feat, it was shattered by Obama and Japan's Abe - both of whom delivered a stark message on behalf of the US and Japanese companies which have invested tens of billions of pounds in the UK, having been invited to do so by previous British governments on the promise of unfettered assess to the EU market.

Obama's and Abe's warning boiled down to this: their giant carmakers, drug companies, banks and so on would shift investment and jobs to the continent much sooner than Mrs May hopes and expects, unless they are given reasonable hope that there'll be no rupture of access to the single market and they'll have the ability to prepare in a careful and methodical way for whatever trading arrangements are in store.

This is serious - but it is extremely difficult to see what the prime minister can do to assure these long-term foreign providers of our prosperity that they shouldn't relocate at least some of their capital and knowhow across the Channel.

We'll start to see multinationals reduce their commitment to Britain within weeks. What impact that will have on the government's Brexit policy is hard to predict.

But surely there is a solution.

Mrs May could use her strength with the people and media to eliminate her weakness in parliament and party - by holding a snap election, since right now it looks as though she would win comfortably.

That is why some of her closest colleagues simply don't understand why she has categorically and unambiguously ruled out doing any such thing.

The explanation probably resides in the weakness she would be trying to eliminate: in the absence of a detailed prospectus for what Brexit actually means in practice, the Tory Party might well tear itself apart in an election campaign over what kind of withdrawal from the EU they were seeking.

Now it would be quite wrong to feel sorry for Theresa May, since she chose - as a Remain supporter - to be the prime minister who will deliver Brexit. But after her recent encounters with Abe and Obama she will certainly understand the gravity and magnitude of what she has taken on".

I don't feel sorry for her either. She voluntarily got herself into the position she is in, knowing what she had by way of a challenge ahead. So where are we?
The referendum was clear. The majority don't want to be in the EU. Some will argue that this was due to financial or legislative concerns. But the truth is is was all about immigration. The majority don't want johnny foreigner in the UK, and we only have to see the many attacks on Eastern Europeans to understand that.
What this means to May is that she is unable to agree an exit deal with the EU that includes free movement of people (of course free movement works both ways, to our potential detriment). The outcome of this is that an exit deal will have to be on the basis that the UK is clearly outside the EU with no special arrangements as are in place for Norway, Switzerland etc, as these deals include free movement.
May will have to, frankly, get what she is given, as for the EU to do otherwise will give ammunition to any other countries that are thinking of going the same way. The only major industry that the UK has that is not replicated elsewhere in the EU is the financial services industry. Many financial companies are considering moving their operation elsewhere in the EU to maintain their access to the financial passport arrangements. So the UK hasn't industrial might on it's side.
Regarding non-EU countries, May will have the job of convincing them to cut a deal with the UK, replacing any deals they already have in place with third countries. What would be in it for them to cut a deal? What has the UK to offer? Much is said of the Commonwealth coming to the UK's rescue. Quaint, but not realistic in today's world.
So this is the challenge facing May. Will she be up to it? Will she have the clout? Will she be able to negotiate toe to toe with the EU, USA, China, Japan etc?

Somehow, I don't think so.

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Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former. - Albert Einstein

Josef, a really good post.

Its just a shame that your great post won't be seen by a wider audience ... you know, the sort of people who voted Brexit but can't find their way to the political section with a white stick

Very condescending KP, and whilst uncontrolled immigration was a major factor in the leave campaign it certainly was not the only one....and "Johnny Foreigner" as you so charmingly put it JK will be no doubt continue to be more than welcome, providing he has a job and can support himself without reliance on the state. Mrs May will not have to take what she is given, she and her team will negotiate a new relationship with the EU and the other 27 nations that have already declared their intent to develop trade agreements with a UK free to do so without the constraints of being within the EU....neither the EU Canada or US trade agreements are progressing well at all...why? because all the members of the EU cannot agree on the T&Cs of the deals....and a simple google of major UK exports will show you that there is more to life than the financial sector....
There are many challenges ahead for the Mrs May and the UK Government, many will be overcome, some may not be and compromise will be made...but the UK will leave the EU, it will continue to trade within the EU, and the wider world trade environment free from the ridiculous constraints place upon the EU club...and it will regain control over its borders..and its laws....and eventually will be a better more prosperous country for it....

Condescension. I'm not sure what other tactic that I could have used to encourage people to drop into the political section and encourage them not wait to be spoon fed political topics in Paphos D2D life. Some people aren't very good with change. Oh god, ive gone and done it again

Anyway Jimmy, thanks for coming over to the political section. I dont know why we can't get this section going.

I should have thought that was pretty obvious - most forum members are sick and tired
of the Remainers still banging on about the referendum.
It is over - leave it to the Govt to now implement it.
Geoff.

Well said, Geoff !
And, KP, some of us like to peruse the variety of subjects, which affect our daily life, on this page ... not just 'one subject' (which is already being implemented by the UK Government elected) ... for which a separate page is not necessary. If you don't like any particular subject ... just 'skip' the link !

How do you know it won't be seen by a wider audience? I click on view new posts and it brings up all the topics in each category that are new or have been commented on. Although reading your comment it wouldn't surprise me if people avoid the section.

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And the Oscar goes to........

Agreed, Tallulah. Such uncalled for comments show a lack of respect and deserve to be avoided (Not because of your post, Josef. Just due to those who make snide remarks).

I don't think "snide" is the correct word. I think Jimmy was closer with "condescending". And my response to Jimmy explains ..... "Condescension. I'm not sure what other tactic that I could have used to encourage people to drop into the political section ... "

No I do think KP is correct, but it does sort of bring up the actual requirement to compartmentalise everything...although it does suit some other sites whose Admin personnel seem to have OCD and diligently move posts to their "correct" folder...

Thanks Jimmy. To put things into context, last night was the first time that I used the new political section on PP, that was put up at the request of a number of PP members.

You might not agree with me, but I thought Josef's post was one of the best that I have seen on the subject of Brexit. I thought Josef's post deserved a reading and a reaction from PP members.

But no reaction whatsoever. It was only my intervention that elicited a reaction, my intention was good. I am sorry if some people didn't understand, but all credit to you for responding to Josef.

In future I am inclined to only post in D2D, where there is a potentially bigger audience.

your are correct KP, I do not think Josefs posts holds any water at all, it is one dimensional, lacks fact and whilst everyone is entitled to an opinion, is based on a worst case scenario....and clearly lacks research....but E for effort...

Jeez, you're a hard audience Jimmy. I think I'll stick to jokes instead of politics in future.

Did you hear the one about Theresa May ....

Lol, I am sure Josef will put me right.....

Oh Jimmy, you do make me giggle.
My post wasn't designed to hold water, not being an aesthetically pleasing Italian watering can.
It isn't one-dimensional, clearing having length and breadth.
It was an opinion piece, so may be excused not being saturated in facts (there not being any at this time).
It isn't based on any scenario. Just my outline of the task ahead.
Finally, being a look ahead, it can't be based on research as there is nothing to research as yet. However, the current status quo has been researched, and this is what I based my piece on.

Thanks for the E for effort. Not condescending at all.

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Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former. - Albert Einstein